The NYTimes released an article this morning summarizing the global reaction to Trump’s presidency:
Russia: Congratulatory, and excited for a chance to flex its muscles
NATO: Reminds America of its treaty obligations, reminding Trump that “the only time that we have invoked Article 5, our collective defense clause, is after an attack on the United States, after 9/11.”
Far-right Europe: Celebrates that Trump has helped make America “free” again
Iran: After Trump’s rhetoric to abandon the nuclear deal, Iran stocks plummet and extremist factions in the government find a receptive audience
Israel: Looks forward to continue working with Trump, their “true friend”
Middle East: Uncertainty, with heads of Turkey and Egypt congratulatory, head of Saudi Arabia cautious, and rebels in Syria afraid for what it means for the war and humanitarian efforts
Japan: Falling stocks, and fear about the continued strength of the US-Japanese alliance
South Korea: Begs Northern Korea to not “misjudge” and asserts that America will still honor its treaty commitments to protect the South.
China: Fears that the strong economic and trade relationship that we have built will collapse under Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric
India: Fear that US’s waning power undermines their regional security
Australia: Reasserts friendship and alliance with the U.S.
While it is difficult to predict now the long-term ramifications of this election, I would predict that we will see the most drastic results of a Trump presidency in the realm of nuclear nonproliferation. As allies like India, South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia (as well as our NATO allies) fear continued U.S. commitment to international security, they will be driven for a need to create or further develop their own nuclear programs. Nuclear deterrence is based on credibility; however, when the U.S. is not a credible nuclear deterrent, countries will need to find their own.